BLUE JAYS 101

The Toronto Blue Jays will enter the 2012 season with depth at a position where many other teams do not even have a legitimate major league average starter – catcher. No, this is not a reference to opening day starter J,P. Arencibia and back-up (as of now) Jeff Mathis, it is a reference to the former in tandem with the much heralded prospect Travis D'Arnaud. Granted, D'Arnaud is not expected to open the season with the big league club, but all indications are that he is nearly (if not entirely) ready to assume catching duties on a major league level.

For those of you who don't pay much attention to the prospect scene, D'Arnaud – a relative afterthought in the Kyle Drabek-centered Roy Halladay trade – is the most highly regarded catching prospect who has not yet seen major league duty, and the next name on the list is not even close. Indeed, among all minor leaguers who have not yet seen action in the show, there is an argument to be had that D'Arnaud is the most valuable of all in the non-Bryce Harper division. Even if we expand our list to include catchers who still qualify as rookies, bringing the Cincinnati Reds' Devin Mesoraco and CIFO (catcher in fantasy only) Jesus Montero into the discussion, D'Arnaud can still lay claim in the minds of many prospect mavens to the catching prospect throne. In fairness, Arencibia is probably still the organization's best option at catcher as of today, but that can easily change within a few months time – and long term, make no mistake, D'Arnaud is the future in Toronto.

If we assume Arencibia is merely a placeholder for D'Arnaud, that leaves us with the question of just how much Arencibia is worth in a trade. In his rookie season last year, Arencibia hit 23 home runs – good for fourth among all major league catchers. However, his absolutely horrific on base percentage of .282 served to negate much of the value derived from his power. Part of that awful OBP is due to some poor luck on his batting average on balls in play, something which will probably see some positive regression in 2012, but a bigger part can be attributed to some unsightly plate discipline numbers. Fortunately, plate discipline is something that has an improvement rate which greatly correlates with time spent in the big leagues, especially in the first few years of a player's career. Still, that should not detract from the fact that Arencibia is not a great catcher, and will likely never be one. 

However, the important thing to remember here is that Arencibia is a catcher, and catcher is a position filled with very little depth and tons of barely-above-replacement-level journeymen in the majors. There is a good argument to be made that Arencibia is the second most valuable catcher in the AL East behind only former prospect phenom Matt Wieters, and when you consider his age and how far he is now from free agency, his value becomes even more apparent. Catchers that can hit 23 home runs in their rookie season don't exactly grow on trees, and Arencibia will have the chance to improve up on his 2011 season for many years to come at very team-friendly costs. There is plenty of value in that kind of a player.

It is reasonable to assume that Arencibia could net the Jays a major league average first baseman (something Adam Lind is most certainly not) and coupled with a solid-but-not-too-optimistic debut from D'Arnaud, the Jays could easily upgrade at first base and catcher for 2012 all in one fell swoop. It's the type of gutsy trade that rarely gets made, there is too much that can go wrong if D'Arnaud isn't ready yet or if Arencibia emerges into a star on someone else's roster, but there is plenty of reason to believe it would be good for Toronto.

Related Videos

Related posts

• The Mat Latos Trade and What It Means for the Toronto Blue Jays
• Analyzing the Ben Francisco Trade, and Have the Blue Jays Given up on Travis Snider?
• Toronto Blue Jays Acquire Jeff Mathis
• Could the Toronto Blue Jays Have Landed Michael Pineda?
• Toronto Blue Jays Prospects: Names to Know