BLUE JAYS 101

Over at baseballthinkfactory.org  you can find the ZiPS projections for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2012. Creator Dan Szymborski's projection system is one that is frequently referenced throughout the spring and the beginning of the season and is one of the most (if not the most) popular projections system in the game today. The page is worth checking out in its entirety, but if you are short on time or having difficulty sifting through all the information, here are some of the more interesting projections that the system has presented.

ZiPS absolutely loves Brett Lawrie.  For a 22 year-old to be projected for a 119 OPS+ with 27 home runs, it is an indication that he looks like a pretty special talent. The system also presents us with player comparisons, and lists the first and second most similar to Lawrie being Chipper Jones and Adrian Beltre. The former is a first ballot hall of famer and the latter still has plenty of time to reach that status as well. If Lawrie makes good on these projections, Toronto is going to have one of the most valuable assets in the league.

ZiPS also looks kindly upon Colby Rasmus and Adam Lind, though it does not project the kind of leaps forward that fans may be hoping for. Rasmus and Lind both sit comfortably above average with triple slash projections of .250/.322/.454 and .264/.315/.466, respectively, but Toronto is likely to need more than that from those two in order to make a push for a playoff spot this year.

In the starting rotation, ZiPS sees little that should come as a surprise. Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow grade out as the only above average starters, ideally suited (according to the system) to be a number two and three in a contending rotation. The pessimism about the rest of the starting staff is not particularly surprising though, and ZiPS seems as confused as the rest of us regarding where all the innings are going to be coming from.

In regards to the bullpen, though, ZiPS is a great deal more optimistic. This unit grades out as an elite one with Sergio Santos, Casey Janssen, Darren Oliver, and Jason Frasor all being projected for above average seasons. After playing host to such a horrible bullpen last year, these kinds of improvements could serve to add a lot of under-the-radar wins and quietly make this team much more competitive. 

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